The scene is this, its grand final day 2014. Hawthorn has put on a clinic at the MCG and the draw of the TV screen is becoming less of an attraction. (I had believed the hype on Sydney and loaded up confirming my reputation as the worst sports gambler of all time.)

Third helpings of BBQ have been devoured and fourth helpings will put me firmly in fat bastard territory so it’s not an option. Just when talking with the Mrs. amongst a patio full of the ladies was becoming a viable option for the rest of the afternoon a glimmer of hope for all supporters of every team not playing the game  hits the screen.

The 2014 AFL Sprint.

 

Hope.

Hope in the form of Jordan Murdoch and a four beer two joint buzz.

The resident Hawthorn supporters are all puffed up like rosters strutting the yard and are ripe for the picking. All their betting has centralised around the hawks winning the game today and it’s over by half time so they have some coin and some confidence, perfect sucker material.

The Hawks have young Billie Hartung who is quick as a flash and was unlucky to miss the squad but through a mate of a mate I had heard that he has been out all week on the gas with the box hill VFL team that had just won the grand final. He had been told early that he wouldn’t be playing so I am betting that he isn’t in tip top shape for this race.

When making a private bet it always pays to get the best of the odds. The TAB isn’t a charity; the markets it posts are as close as you can get to winning chances and if you can bet mate even money on a two horse race when the actual odds are weighted in your favour it can be considered to have a plus expected value. The more plus EV bets you can make over a period of time the better off you will be in the long run and immediate results shouldn’t matter. The same can be said for football, if the ball spills to the front of a marking contest 75% of the time the player that is front and square will have the opportunity to get the ball an extra 25 times over 100 contests.

Poker has similar concepts.

 It’s just the smart play.

“Alright you Hawthorn soft cocks, I’m prepared to take Jordan Murdoch even though he has been out with the boys on the piss for the week over your pretty boy Billie fit and ready to go Hartung, who was stiff not to be playing today actually, what you reckon? Who is keen?”

The hook has been baited. Geelong supporter mouthing off when the hawks have the game wrapped up at half time. These blokes will throw cash at me.

“Il take that.”

“Me too.”

A nibble.

“How much then boys? I will warn you I backed Sydney today so this is me chasing some losses.”

“$10?”

“$10 whoa big spender are you sure you shouldn’t  check with your husband and see if your aloud to bet with the boys, maybe you can get the kids outside to chip in and make it $12.50. I’m basically giving money away here , Murdoch is like the fourth fastest at our club.”

“$20 then.”

That is a big bite, time to start reeling them in and see what is on the hook.

“Alright $20 each then, head to head, Murdoch vs. Hartung to see who the quickest in the AFL is.”

Hands are shaken and I have two bets on both of which I have the clear favourite in a two horse race for even money. Good result on a crap day.

Conversation starts amongst the blokes as to who the actual fastest player in the AFL is and a fairly persuasive argument is made for Patrick Dangerfield who has won the last three sprints in a row and being a bit of an old bastard I put forward Scott Chisholm ex Freo player that won in sub 11 seconds as all time that I've seen. The rest of the time till the start of the race is spent ridiculing the lone Carlton fan that has the audacity to put forward Dennis Armfield into the mix. Fair dinkum the only way Dennis Armfield wins a race is if they change it to an egg and spoon race and he is only allowed to compete against people with comparably bad facial hair.

The race itself is a bit of a fizzer. Murdoch runs nice and tall and hits the front at the halfway mark. Billie Hartung makes his charge at about 60m but the Geelong jet easily fights off his challenge then puts the foot down and blows them away to win easily.

I would like to pause here and ask why the StKilda football club has taken the piss and entered Clinton Jones in this race. He finishes last or near enough to it but the fact he was allowed to run is a disgrace. If you cant be bothered with any aspect of the grand final like the saints have made a habit of over the last 150 years at least send a kid that can run and might be inspired off the experience not a middle aged plodder who made his career not getting a kick himself but scragging good players off a kick. You plan to delist him at the seasons end anyway yet there he is proudly sporting a StKilda Guernsey at the only game that might give your club some international exposure, might make it onto ESPN plays of the day and some bright spark at the Saints decides to send Clinton Jones to race 100m.

Piss weak effort StKilda, sums you up as a club.

So $40 up.

A little bit of excitement for a Cats fan with not much to celebrate in 2014.

It helped me watch the second half of the exhibition that will end in hawthorn putting a full stop at the end of the 2014 AFL season.

It gave me hope that the Cats would be the first side to ride the conception that in order to be successful you needed to bottom out and go through the draft system. Through thorough list management and solid core values you didn’t need to follow the AFL rollercoaster system.

We were wrong. Maybe Hawthorn will crack the code and be the first true power of the modern era. They arguably are already but then that brings the Cats and the Lions into the conversation. It all gets a bit squirly. 

I can easily see the cats following Brisbane’s decline. But will they?

The Cats are playing scared at the moment. Not scared of the opposition, we are scared of ourselves. We know we are not good enough and we are too scared to try. It makes me sick. Gone are the Cats of old swinging into the middle with a dangerous pin point pass to a guy who has taken the initiative and run into space. Gone is any surety the backline held due to the sheer volume of ball that gets sent straight back in and worst of all our pressure is non existent at best. Any pressure we encounter be it actual or perceived causes poor decision making and our mantra seems to be hold off and corral instead of applying any physical contact on the ball carrier.

We used to hunt the ball in packs but now we are the hunted and getting picked off regularly by teams that are braver than us.

I've got a plan B for the cats. Lets just go back to taking the game on , giving the ball to Jordan Murdoch who has been given the inspiration to take a four bounce 100m sprint down the wing of the MCG and told to kick it long into the Tomahawk and Clarke. Then its up to hard work to lock it in our forward zone with relentless pressure.

I’m staying positive that it all turns around against Gold Coast Suns at the cattery on Sunday. We haven't beaten the Suns in few matches but we cant have dropped away that much can we?

Go Cats